The Internal Combustion Engine Bubble

The internal combustion engine (ICE) needs to be phased out, and the vehicle fleet needs to be electrified to make road transport compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. However, just how fast this transition must happen, what it means for the auto industry and whether the companies’ planning delivers what is needed to comply with the 1.5°C goal remains unclear. This report aims to shed light on these questions. It defines the number of ICE vehicles that could still be sold within a 1.5°C carbon trajectory and projects the auto industry’s ICE sales based on the assessment of four major manufacturers’ plans – Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai / Kia and General Motors – and quantifies the overshoot.